Are Home Prices in the U.S. Undervalued or Overvalued?
Reports show home prices on the national level are 3% undervalued!
Many metropolitan areas around the country have seen large price gains in residential home prices since the financial crisis lows set back in 2009 to 2011.
That being said, are we once again in the formation stage of a new real estate bubble as some claim?
Maybe and then again maybe not.
What needs to be put into context, however, is that some of the out-sized home price gains have resulted due to the rise from a low financial crisis base . This base resulted from the sharp and steep drop in real estate values, particularly in some of the regions like Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix that had skyrocketed due to speculation and the ease of acquiring a mortgage.
Of the nations 100 largest metro areas, 76 are undervalued while only 7 are overvalued by more than 10%. The metrics used to form this thesis compares the prices in the market today with historical prices, incomes, and rents.
Below are charts showing the Top 10 Undervalued and Top 10 Overvalued Metro Areas in the United States
| Top 10 Metros Where Home Prices Are Most Overvalued | ||||
| # | U.S. Metro | Home prices relative to fundamentals, 2014 Q2 | Home prices relative to fundamentals, 2006 Q1 | Year-over-year change in asking prices, May 2014 |
| 1 | Orange County, CA | +17% | +71% | 9.6% |
| 2 | Honolulu, HI | +15% | +41% | 5.3% |
| 3 | Los Angeles, CA | +15% | +79% | 12.7% |
| 4 | Riverside-San Bernardino, CA | +13% | +92% | 18.8% |
| 5 | Austin, TX | +13% | +8% | 9.7% |
| 6 | San Jose, CA | +11% | +58% | 10.4% |
| 7 | Oakland, CA | +10% | +72% | 14.8% |
| 8 | Ventura County, CA | +9% | +73% | 12.6% |
| 9 | San Diego, CA | +7% | +69% | 11.2% |
| 10 | San Francisco, CA | +6% | +51% | 11.6% |
| Top 10 Metros Where Home Prices Are Most Undervalued | ||||
| # | U.S. Metro | Home prices relative to fundamentals, 2014 Q2 | Home prices relative to fundamentals, 2006 Q1 | Year-over-year change in asking prices, May 2014 |
| 1 | Akron, OH | -21% | +18% | 4.7% |
| 2 | Cleveland, OH | -21% | +18% | 6.3% |
| 3 | Detroit, MI | -19% | +38% | 15.2% |
| 4 | Dayton, OH | -16% | +13% | 12.1% |
| 5 | Worcester, MA | -15% | +43% | 4.4% |
| 6 | Memphis, TN-MS-AR | -14% | +11% | 3.2% |
| 7 | Toledo, OH | -14% | +22% | 10.0% |
| 8 | Chicago, IL | -14% | +36% | 13.5% |
| 9 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | -14% | +54% | 3.8% |
| 10 | Providence, RI-MA | -14% | +52% | 2.9% |
